After months of intrigue about whether or not Sara Duterte-Carpio would run for Philippine President in 2022, the real story came and went without much fanfare.
In short, no, she won’t be running for the nation’s highest office.
However, what we missed – presumably because we never saw the election betting odds at the top online Philippine sportsbooks budge in response – is the fact that while Mayor Sara did withdraw from her reelection campaign in Davao City, she will be entering the 2022 Presidential election as a Vice Presidential candidate.
Nominally, Duterte-Carpio will be the “running mate” of Bongbong Marcos.
Interestingly (at least for Western observers), despite being running mates, Duterte-Carpio and Marcos are not members of the same political party. President Rodrigo Duterte’s high-profile and immensely popular daughter represents Lakas-CMD, while Marcos represents the PFP.
Even more interestingly, it’s possible in Philippine elections for those “on the same ticket” to win independently of one another.
That is, Marcos could win while another VP candidate takes the post beneath him, and Duterte-Carpio could win while serving alongside a different Philippine President.
That said, neither of those contingencies is likely.
Taken alone, both candidates are extremely popular in the islands. It’s possible that, had Mayor Sara run for President, she would have made the race with Marcos close – or even won outright.
However, with Duterte-Carpio running for VP, no other Philippine Presidential hopeful has odds anywhere near as strong as Marcos’ chances. Even the Manny Pacquiao odds – once positioning the pugilist at the top of the boards – are now soundly in second place.
Ultimately, this is a very calculated pairing, and it’s extremely likely that Marcos and Duterte-Carpio will be elected in their respective races on Monday, May 9, 2022.
Per Reuters, Mayor Sara told her supporters the following when announcing her plans last month:
“My party allied with and asked for support for Bongbong Marcos and for me after I accepted your challenge and your call. … I know that this fight is long and hard, but I am confident you will join and help me until the end, until we win this for our beloved country. If not for your outpouring of support, I would be out of this race.”
For his part, the Presidential frontrunner had this to say:
“We and our parties agreed that we will pursue a unifying leadership should we be fortunate to win the election…”
Meanwhile, for those who still need a strategic refresher about why this approach makes sense, Reuters explains things succinctly:
“The alliance would be formidable and a boon for both campaigns…with Marcos able to tap the huge support base of the Dutertes in the south, and Duterte-Carpio likely to gain from the Marcos dynasty’s decades of dominance in its northern stronghold.”
With that, let’s take a look at the updated Philippines Presidential election odds at BetOnline Sportsbook (previous odds in parentheses):
2022 Philippine Presidential Election Odds – Winner
2022 Philippine Presidential Election
- Bongbong Marcos -300 (-210)
- Manny Pacquiao +400 (+350)
- Isko Moreno +700 (+600)
- Leni Robredo +750 (+600)
- Sara Duterte-Carpio +4000 (+4000)
- Bong Go +6600 (+6600)
- Alan Peter Cayetano +10000 (+10000)
- Antonio Trillanes +10000 (+10000)
See? We weren’t the only ones to miss the developments.
Right now, even though the field is set, you can still bet on Mayor Sara’s chances to win the next Philippine Presidential election. Of course, you shouldn’t do that, as Mayor Sara is running for Vice President, not President.
Similarly, you can still wager on Bong Go’s odds to win, despite the candidate officially bowing out of the race. (Once the headliner for Rodrigo Duterte’s PDP-Laban, Go saw the writing on the wall with the election’s dynamic top ticket and withdrew his candidacy on Tuesday, December 14.)
Alan Peter Cayetano has also declined to run for President and will instead seek a return to the Philippine Senate. Ditto for Antonio Trillanes.
All in all, we think a -300 payout on Marcos here warrants betting the maximum.
Manny Pacquiao for Philippine President?
- No -700 (-600)
- Yes +400 (+350)
He has a puncher’s chance, but PacMan probably needs a few more rounds at middleweight before moving up to face the heavies.