You know, we could have headlined this story:
“Manny Pacquiao To Fight Woman For Philippine National Championship”
But while that will likely prove technically accurate down the road (albeit with some artistic license), we’re not about that clickbait life.
Things are interesting enough without it.
The big news – at least for those who wager on elections at legal online Philippine sportsbook sites – is that there’s a very real chance to get in on some very attractive odds before the rest of the world figures out what’s going on.
If you live in the Philippines yourself, you’ve got a major edge already, since you’re familiar with the local political climate.
But election betting is a worldwide phenomenon, and the best PH sports betting operators have yet to really see the lines move on Saturday’s major news.
And here’s that news, per the Associated Press:
“Speaking before reporters, [President Rodrigo] Duterte said many Filipinos have expressed their opposition to his vice-presidential bid in surveys and public forums.
‘The overwhelming sentiment of the Filipino is that I’m not qualified, and it would be a violation of the constitution,’ Duterte said. ‘I will follow what you wish, and today I announce my retirement from politics.'”
Previously, remember, President Duterte had accepted the PDP-Laban nomination for Vice President. Now, however, he’s retiring from public office.
And while the AP and various Western outlets still attempt to smear “Duterte Harry” and frame him more or less like a comic book supervillain a la President Donald Trump, it’s clear that his fanbase is still considerable.
You can see that in the fact that Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio – the current mayor of Davao City – has consistently outpolled all other potential candidates for the 2022 Philippines Presidential election.
And that’s where our big tout comes in.
Because it seems – somehow – that global election bettors have not gotten the memo.
With President Duterte retiring, the dominoes are set to fall in a potentially predictable and very profitable way for those paying attention.
For one thing, despite being the favorite on the odds boards, Manny Pacquiao is almost certainly not the actual favorite now.
Previously, Duterte-Carpio stated that she would not run for President because her father was running for VP.
The pair had an agreement in place that “only one Duterte would run for a national office next year.”
Now, she can run!
And although she’s filed for reelection as Davao City mayor, there is rampant speculation that Duterte-Carpio will withdraw those papers and throw her hat into the biggest ring of all.
Native son or not, PacMan the Politician™ is nowhere near as beloved as PacMan the Pugilist™.
He will be a huge underdog to Duterte-Carpio, and that’s the matchup you should be looking out for when you bet on the following odds (previous odds in parentheses):
2022 Philippine Presidential Election
Philippines Election Winner 2022
- Manny Pacquiao -150 (-120)
- Sara Duterte-Carpio +210 (+275)
- Isko Moreno +1000 (N/A)
- Bongbong Marcos +1500 (+1500)
- Leni Robredo +1500 (+1000)
- Bong Go +2200 (+400)
- Alan Peter Cayetano +5000 (+5000)
- Antonio Trillanes +5000 (+5000)
Right now, with Duterte-Carpio trending at +210 after sitting at +275 last week, it’s clear that at least some gamblers “in the know” are starting to move this line.
As such, this is the most money you’re going to get on a Duterte-Carpio pick going forward, so you should go all in.
It’s also worth pointing out that when President Duterte formally bowed out of the 2022 VP race on Saturday, the party formally transferred its Vice Presidential endorsement to Bong Go.
Above, you can see that Go is still a go on the Presidential election board, so you should probably stay away from that particular selection.
Manny Pacquiao Odds For Philippine President 2022
- No -140 (-140)
- Yes +100 (+100)
This is an interesting line.
Above, you can see that – out of the pool of candidates presented – PacMan is the favorite.
He’s a pretty big favorite, actually.
However, when asked whether or not he’ll win against the field (which is what this secondary listing implies), he’s a moderate underdog.
There’s a 90-point swing between the two, in fact.
And it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The first line above – featuring eight potential candidates – is not tentative.
It has action.
It is binding.
It doesn’t matter what happens to any of the candidates on that list from here till election day on May 9 next year – If you go on that line right now, you’re locked in.
Thus, if the Manny Pacquiao chances to be President are -150 on the first bet, they ought to be -150 on the second.
This is actually one of the rare times where there’s a total disconnect between two betting lines that are asking the same question (at least in part).
This happens for one reason and one reason only:
The kinds of bettors wagering on the first line are inherently different from the kinds of bettors wagering on the second.
The bettors selecting from a pool of Philippine Presidential candidates have some basic familiarity with all the candidates on the board. They’re more knowledgeable.
Most are likely Filipinos.
On the other hand, those bettors selecting a single Philippine Presidential election outcome on a yes/no prop line are probably less informed re the specifics of Filipino politics.
These are most likely international sports bettors who are only familiar with Pacquiao as a boxer.
But regardless of the whys and wherefores, it’s very clear that you’ve got a great chance to get a truly profitable payout on Duterte-Carpio for President if you get your bets in right now.
Next week, she’ll be at -120 or more.
Bet on it.